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I would expect it to be more crowded than usual.
We were there the first two weeks of October. and all I heard from Disney was how few visitors were there. I am pretty sure what they meant to say is how few out of state visitors were there. It was the most crowded I have seen it since we started going ten years ago. Waits were typically an hour or more for the e-ticket rides. The wait for Peter Pan was over an hour and a half several afternoons. I also saw reports that the crowds during Thanksgiving were up nearly 10% from last year.
With the additional discounts Disney has given to Florida residents, there are many more locals attending than in the past. Disney is suffering because the majority of their income comes from hotel and restaurant income, rather than park entrance fees. So, if locals are crowding the parks, they aren't staying in Disney resorts.
You are going during one of the slowest times of the year though, so I wouldn't expect huge crowds.
Mickey's Very Merry Christmas Party is like a souped up e-ride night. It's pretty fun, and allows you access to characters, a parade and rides that are normally crowded during normal park hours. You get the park to yourself for five hours, so how bad can that be? Keep your eyes peeled, they tend to release pins and other items during the party, and they are only available during the parties. I definitely think it is worth the extra money.
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