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I think it varies by restaurant. I have noticed that at very busy restaurants, you still have to wait. We always have to wait at Le Cellier, and last time we were at California Grill, we waited about a half an hour. The alternative is to just show up, but then you are put at the end of the list, and keep getting rotated down below all the people that come after you with PS. Last visit at Le Cellier, the wait for a non-PS was over two hours. I honestly don't think you would even get into California Grill without a PS. I wouldn't expect your wait to be over a half an hour. Make sure you arrive a couple minutes early and get your name on the list.
One nice thing about CG is that they have a nice waiting area, and you can also walk out onto the catwalks outside. They have great views of the Magic Kingdom and the other monorail resorts. They also give you a beeper that works throughout the Contemporary, so you could also explore while waiting.
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